2023年业绩同比预计大增，关注储能及新建煤矿，维持“增持”评级

工厂(chang)上架202两(liang)年(nian)报预先，202两(liang)年(nian)进(jin)(jin)行(xing)归(gui)(gui)母纯费用(yong)(yong)(yong)润(run)(run)22.3-23.3000万(wan)(wan)元(yuan)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)+16.8%-22.0%；进(jin)(jin)行(xing)扣非归(gui)(gui)母纯费用(yong)(yong)(yong)润(run)(run)22.8-23.8万(wan)(wan)美元(yuan)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)+37.0%-43.0%。单Q4来(lai)说，2023Q4进(jin)(jin)行(xing)归(gui)(gui)母纯费用(yong)(yong)(yong)润(run)(run)6.1-7.1万(wan)(wan)美元(yuan)，环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长率增(zeng)(zeng)长-0.8%-+15.5%，进(jin)(jin)行(xing)扣非后(hou)归(gui)(gui)母纯费用(yong)(yong)(yong)润(run)(run)6.6-7.6万(wan)(wan)美元(yuan)，环(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)长率增(zeng)(zeng)长+8.1%-24.4%。工厂(chang)业绩报告(gao)预增(zeng)(zeng)主(zhu)因煤(mei)(mei)焦金融业务(wu)量(liang)产(chan)供保有(you)量(liang)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)提升，魅力金融业务(wu)量(liang)的动力煤(mei)(mei)选择(ze)费用(yong)(yong)(yong)相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)下(xia)跌(die)，现(xian)在(zai)(zai)煤(mei)(mei)焦费用(yong)(yong)(yong)位于比(bi)较(jiao)最(zui)高位且波动缩窄。自己形成2023-2025年(nian)能(neng)预估(gu)，保守估(gu)计2023-2025年(nian)进(jin)(jin)行(xing)归(gui)(gui)母纯费用(yong)(yong)(yong)润(run)(run)23.0/25.1/26.6万(wan)(wan)美元(yuan)，相(xiang)(xiang)比(bi)+20.4%/+9.3%/+5.8%；EPS为(wei)0.10/0.11/0.1两(liang)元(yuan)，对应(ying)着现(xian)在(zai)(zai)股(gu)票市值PE为(wei)13.3/12.2/11.5倍，形成“定(ding)增(zeng)(zeng)”评(ping)定(ding)。

煤炭产销增长叠加电力成本降低，业绩改善显著

新疆(jiang)(jiang)河(he)(he)南(nan)煤(mei)(mei)炭能(neng)源(yuan)相(xiang)关(guan)行(xing)业：子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)202四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)新疆(jiang)(jiang)河(he)(he)南(nan)煤(mei)(mei)炭能(neng)源(yuan)相(xiang)关(guan)行(xing)业茶叶市(shi)场(chang)销(xiao)售量(liang)(liang)现身的(de)增(zeng)长，这这当中前前三(san)一(yi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)第(di)(di)四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)精煤(mei)(mei)产/流(liu)量(liang)(liang)为(wei)954/959十万吨，比(bi)(bi)+15.7%/+17.7%，再创新高最后一(yi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)第(di)(di)四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)茶叶市(shi)场(chang)销(xiao)售量(liang)(liang)与前三(san)一(yi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)第(di)(di)四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)不(bu)同好(hao)大(da)。202四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)秦港5500大(da)卡能(neng)量(liang)(liang)煤(mei)(mei)平(ping)成交房(fang)价(jia)为(wei)965元/吨，比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)涨24.0%；京唐港主焦煤(mei)(mei)（河(he)(he)南(nan)产）库涨价(jia)平(ping)成交房(fang)价(jia)为(wei)2283元/吨，比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)涨19.6%。子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)新疆(jiang)(jiang)河(he)(he)南(nan)煤(mei)(mei)炭能(neng)源(yuan)相(xiang)关(guan)行(xing)业茶叶市(shi)场(chang)销(xiao)售量(liang)(liang)升高需要水平(ping)上对(dui)冲套利了茶叶市(shi)场(chang)煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)下挫作(zuo)用。供电(dian)(dian)局相(xiang)关(guan)行(xing)业：房(fang)价(jia)预(yu)算方(fang)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)，回报于煤(mei)(mei)价(jia)乖离率指(zhi)标较多(duo)，子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)风能(neng)发(fa)电(dian)(dian)房(fang)价(jia)预(yu)算大(da)幅度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)的(de)变低(di)；量(liang)(liang)方(fang)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)，子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)售卖(mai)电(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)显(xian)示有所为(wei)调节，前前三(san)一(yi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)第(di)(di)四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)共(gong)发(fa)/售电(dian)(dian)283/268亿度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，比(bi)(bi)+0.6%/+0.4%，这这当中Q3发(fa)/售电(dian)(dian)112/1015亿度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)，环(huan)比(bi)(bi)去年(nian)(nian)(nian)同期(qi)+35.1%/+35.2%；房(fang)价(jia)方(fang)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)，前前三(san)一(yi)第(di)(di)二(er)(er)第(di)(di)四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)、半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)(nian)(nian)度(du)(du)(du)(du)(du)平(ping)均(jun)水平(ping)电(dian)(dian)价(jia)格476元/千伏安时，比(bi)(bi)+2.6%。202四(si)(si)(si)年(nian)(nian)(nian)子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)供电(dian)(dian)局版块显(xian)眼调节，子(zi)单(dan)(dan)(dan)位(wei)(wei)(wei)(wei)的(de)说(shuo)道五月起(qi)供电(dian)(dian)局相(xiang)关(guan)行(xing)业刚(gang)刚(gang)开始扭亏增(zeng)盈。

全钒液流电池项目加速落地，其他储能项目同步拓展

会加(jia)快(kuai)设(she)置全钒液流干电板全企业链，我(wo)司储(chu)热二次创业会加(jia)快(kuai)离地。（1）全钒液流干电板顶目设(she)置：6月(yue)27日(ri)新期(qi)300MW大容积(ji)全钒液流干电板制造线复工(gong)(gong)(gong)设(she)置，10月(yue)进行(xing)任务(wu)桩基施工(gong)(gong)(gong)，预(yu)期(qi)202四年下(xia)1年投入运营，但(dan)其中1MW现场实验制造线已安装使用(yong)操作进行(xing)任务(wu)，预(yu)期(qi)新期(qi)顶目达(da)生完孩子(zi)后(hou)占我(wo)國市场的比例(li)10%。然而筹(chou)划沙洲(zhou)魅(mei)力2期(qi)30MW全钒液流干电板储(chu)热协(xie)助调频教师(shi)示范顶目，顶目设(she)置及储(chu)热系(xi)統主仪器招标公示工(gong)(gong)(gong)做已进行(xing)任务(wu)。（2）钒矿选冶制造线设(she)置：6月(yue)29日(ri)汇(hui)宏矿山机械新期(qi)3000吨/年高纯五氧化的二钒选冶制造线复工(gong)(gong)(gong)设(she)置，预(yu)期(qi)202四年下(xia)1年投入运营，达(da)生完孩子(zi)后(hou)占我(wo)國比例(li)约20%。我(wo)司共筹(chou)划设(she)置2×3000吨/年，时间(jian)推移钒被急剧被的开(kai)发充分利(li)用(yong)，我(wo)司钒矿资(zi)源量币值(zhi)突出。

海则滩建设加快，第五次高管增持落地彰显信心

海则(ze)滩媒矿建设(she)投资项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目不断2026年(nian)(nian)出(chu)(chu)煤(mei)(mei)。机构(gou)隶属关系西(xi)安(an)亿华海则(ze)滩媒矿建设(she)投资项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目处在西(xi)安(an)省榆(yu)横(heng)矿山，煤(mei)(mei)种基(ji)本点为(wei)优(you)越有机化(hua)工(gong)(gong)新材(cai)料用煤(mei)(mei)及牵引(yin)力煤(mei)(mei)，资源性储量11.43亿吨(dun)，平(ping)衡升温量6500大卡(ka)以(yi)上的。截(jie)止202两(liang)年(nian)(nian)15月31日整体布局工(gong)(gong)程建筑工(gong)(gong)作(zuo)进度比(bi)行(xing)动方(fang)案(an)提前就有一(yi)月，不断2026年(nian)(nian)配备出(chu)(chu)煤(mei)(mei)水平(ping)。该建设(she)投资项(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目能够达到(dao)到(dao)1000万桶/年(nian)(nian)优(you)越有机化(hua)工(gong)(gong)新材(cai)料用煤(mei)(mei)及牵引(yin)力煤(mei)(mei)的生扩产力，按近(jin)一(yi)年(nian)(nian)餐饮(yin)市(shi)面煤(mei)(mei)价推算出(chu)(chu)净(jing)净(jing)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)约46亿元人民(min)币(bi)，按202两(liang)年(nian)(nian)餐饮(yin)市(shi)面平(ping)衡煤(mei)(mei)价推算出(chu)(chu)净(jing)净(jing)收(shou)入(ru)润(run)约44亿元人民(min)币(bi)。领导层(ceng)三(san)次(ci)加持(chi)行(xing)为(wei) 信(xin)任。202两(liang)年(nian)(nian)-10月机构(gou)上市(shi)总(zong)部公告基(ji)本点的管控相关人员第五个次(ci)加持(chi)机构(gou)股标行(xing)动方(fang)案(an)试(shi)行(xing)正(zheng)在，此次(ci)累计数(shu)加持(chi)0.09%，行(xing)为(wei) 机构(gou)的管控层(ceng)对(dui)机构(gou)壮大的信(xin)任。

危(wei)险的提(ti)示(shi)：煤(mei)价下降超预(yu)计(ji)想象结(jie)果(guo)；煤(mei)炭能(neng)源产量比抵不过预(yu)计(ji)想象结(jie)果(guo)；微电(dian)网转型发展抵不过预(yu)计(ji)想象结(jie)果(guo)。

   

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